Folks, it’s just good practice to take predictions of global doom with a large grain of salt. Zealots on street corners bearing large, hand-drawn signs declaring that the End is Nigh have been at it for years. Gurus have been staring into mirrors in dark rooms and scribbling incoherent sonnets about the coming of the anti-Christ since that got popular back in the 16th century. And even very intelligent people yet high on their own supply have been predicting the end of the world for a long time. And sure, lots of Very Bad Things have indeed occurred over the years. BUT! Humanity persists. We endure. We are all still around. And I have yet to meet an honest-to-God prophet who can consistently call the future by looking at a person’s palms, old tea leaves, freshly harvested goat intestines, or (and maybe especially) a chart. Call me a cynic. Color me skeptical.
But man if I am going to join a doomsday cult then let it be Peter Zeihan’s doomsday cult. Dear reader, I submit that no one can sell doom as well as Peter Zeihan. He’s cheeky. He’s fun. He’s (seemingly) knowledgeable, thorough, well-spoken, and witty. The man can preach. The man can SELL! And his product is no less than the end of the world. Well, that is not precise and so not fair: actually he preaches the end of the current world order. And he makes you laugh while scaring the P out of you too. What a genius.
I first heard of Mr. Zeihan several years ago when a very good friend recommended his book, Accidental Superpower. The friend who recommended the book is in the military and has served in some very high level positions that afford him great vision in the realm of international politics. He told me that I should read the book and that the author knew his stuff.
Sadly, while I had intended to read the book, I completely forgot about it and the recommendation sunk from memory. Too bad for me. Fast forward to a few days ago when a YouTube video of a presentation given to the Iowa Pork Council (of all things) was shared in an email discussion group of which I am a part (thanks Kit Pharo for the link and the amazing red angus bull that lords over the ranch). Dear reader, that video (insert deep breath and pregnant pause)… Blew My Mind. And after watching the video, the speaker’s name, Peter Zeihan, flew back into my memory. I immediately searched him out and started his newest book, The End of the World is Just the Beginning.
A Summary
Here is a very rough and paraphrased summary of The End of the World is Just the Beginning: For the past 70 years and largely because of US dominance and hegemony after World War II, the global economy and order have experienced a term of peace and prosperity that, while seemingly normal to those who have grown up in this modern world, is actually an historical anomaly. Mr. Zeihan proposes that the era of stability, peace, and global economic cooperation is ending. He predicts that several global powers are doomed to failure and collapse (China, Europe) due to lopsided demographics (too many old people) and resource constraints. Conflict, mass starvation, and de-globalization will ensue. Mr. Zeihan’s single ray of sunshine in all of this is that the northern half of the Western Hemisphere, and the United States especially, is going to muddle through these turbulent waters in relatively good shape. So yay for us.
The case for land
For those who have been reading my work, you know that I have been passing along some pretty bad news about real estate of late (perhaps I am the zealot on the corner?). Most of that news has been couched firmly in the residential real estate space: I may or may not have mentioned that the residential space is tremendously huge. I probably wrote that the residential real estate market effects land and other types of real estate. Well all of that is true. We do seem to be in the midst a trend-shifting transition and there is going to be a lot of turbulence.
However, one of the reasons that I love land and ranch real estate is that it tends to be relatively insulated from the vagaries of residential ups and downs. Land is just too big and clumsy and is too much of a slow-moving beast to get the yips like residential. One of the other reasons that I love land is because over the long term (and I mean decades here), I still think it is one of the best hard assets out there. Better than gold. Better than silver. Better even than a digital meme coin secured by warm and fuzzy feelings. This is especially true for agriculturally productive land.
The reason for this faith is very simple and is one I’ve intuited for a long time: people will always need to eat! I was very happy to read that Mr. Zeihan agreed with me on this point. To the downside, Mr. Zeihan predicts that the collapse of the global order and global trade as we know it means that there will be very few countries naturally able to continue modern agriculture. Happily, We The People of these States United are one of those countries. From the book:
The first category of food-exporting countries are those whose supply systems for everything from finance to fertilizers to fuels are sufficiently in-house that they can continue producing their current product set with only minor adjustments. France, the United States, and Canada are the only countries on the planet that check all the boxes.
If Mr. Zeihan is correct, and I certainly am not claiming that he is or will be, but if he is then one can conclude that as an owner of a food producing asset like ag land and located in one of the few nations who are still able to produce food, one will be sitting pretty in that dystopian version of the future. That is, of course, until the aliens invade and create yet another dystopian hellscape.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst
All brand new Marine Corps officers are taught that Hope is Not a Strategy. One does not hope. One looks at a situation in the cold and stark nakedness of reality-as-it-is and then does their best to plan for and then react to whatever evolving chaotic mess O! Fortuna throws at you. And if your entire occupation revolves around scenarios where you are trying to kill people and they you, it behooves you to at least consider and plan, if not outright prepare, for the worst case scenario.
So while I am not convinced that everything that Peter Zeihan says will or won’t come true, I think he makes a very compelling argument that must be considered. And in that consideration the conclusion is that land, especially agriculturally productive land, is currently undervalued and will be a very valuable asset in the future. Conclusion: invest in ag land and do it now.
But, but, but… you said that no one knows the future. Ah yes, dear reader, you are correct. No one knows the future. So we must also consider the question of whether Peter Zeihan is sound in rationale and reason today but quite out to lunch in the light of whatever reality actually occurs tomorrow (down with the alien overlords!). Perhaps humanity masters nuclear fusion and Elon Musk’s brain chips connect us all into unending earthly harmony (not unlike a very uninteresting colony of ants). Those technological advances would change everything except…
…the powerful and continuing need to eat. And I will venture a guess and suppose that we won’t be growing corn, beans, or wheat on Mars anytime soon. AND! As every land Realtor is very fond of reminding clients: they just aren’t making any more land. So, yeah, even if Mr. Zeihan is wrong, like flat-out dead-ass wrong, I still think land is a good buy.
Mull it over in your head. Chew thoroughly and digest. Please process and come to your very own conclusion. But, dear reader, I submit that this is all a very, very good case for land.